Micron Technology, Inc. (MU) appears poised for an explosive breakout, both technically and fundamentally. While it remains to be seen whether this materializes by its Q3 earnings report on June 25, the setup suggests a high-probability move is about to happen, and soon.
The fundamental case for a breakout is backed by MU’s deep involvement in the AI memory boom. Its high-bandwidth memory (HBM) is powering Nvidia’s next-gen Blackwell chips, demand is outstripping supply, and prices are rising. With sold-out capacity for 2025 and earnings projected to surge 437% this year, MU’s Q3 report could be the next major catalyst.
In light of these forecasts, let’s put things into context and see where MU has stood over the past year in its comparative performance with VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH), our semiconductor industry proxy, Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK), for a sector comparison, and Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ), a stand-in for the Nasdaq 100 Index ($NDX).
MU vs. SMH, XLK, and QQQ: Tracking Relative Performance
Despite its recent rally, MU remains a relative laggard. Whether it breaks out will depend on how effectively it positions itself amid shifting industry dynamics.
FIGURE 1. PERFCHARTS OF MU RELATIVE TO ITS INDUSTRY, SECTOR, AND THE NASDAQ 100. MU has been the big laggard over the past year. You need to take a closer and more detailed look to gain more insight into MU’s current upward momentum.
While analysts are optimistic about its role in the evolving AI-driven landscape, that thesis will be put to the test when the company reports earnings in the coming weeks.
A Shift in Momentum? What the MarketCarpets Are Revealing
While MU lags its industry peers, it might help you to get a more granular view of performance within the semiconductor industry. This is where the StockCharts MarketCarpets Semiconductors summary can be helpful.
FIGURE 2. MARKETCARPETS – SEMICONDUCTORS. In contrast to its peers, a 5-day view shows that MU is the strongest performer.
Though MU has trailed its industry peers over the past year, the 5-day MarketCarpets view reveals a shift in momentum. With a 13.32% gain over the past week, MU is rapidly narrowing the gap and beginning to outpace its peers.
Weekly Chart Levels: Resistance, Support, and Entry Zones
Typically, you’d drill down to a daily chart for more precision, but, with MU, the weekly chart alone highlights the key levels worth watching.
FIGURE 3. WEEKLY CHART OF MU. The weekly chart shows all key levels, from entry to profit targets and stop loss levels.
The weekly chart view clearly outlines support, resistance, and potential entry and exit points. Listed below are the key levels and scenarios to watch.
MU Price Scenarios: Breakout or Breakdown?
- Watch the rectangle formation: MU is approaching a breakout above key resistance at $115, just ahead of its June 25 earnings report. A decisive move above the rectangle could trigger long entries from bullish traders.
- Upside scenario: A beat on earnings and strong forward guidance could fuel continued upside—unless derailed by broader geopolitical risks.
- Downside scenario: If the breakout fails, look for support near the bottom of the formation. The Volume-by-Price indicator shows a heavy concentration of trading at that level, reinforcing its significance as a support zone. However, a breakdown there may cast doubt on the current uptrend thesis.
- Profit-taking zone: If MU continues its bullish trajectory, expect resistance and likely profit-taking between $127 and $137, an area marked by multiple highs and consolidation levels throughout 2024.
Why $127 to $137, when the weekly chart shows $130 to $135? Here’s where zooming in helps.
FIGURE 4. ZOOMING N TO A DAILY CHART OF MU. This shows, in much greater detail, the potential resistance levels above.
The top and bottom of this consolidation provide a clearer view of potential resistance, which may also serve as profit-taking levels for short-term traders, so keep an eye on this.
- Last thing – watch the peak: A second round of resistance and potential profit-taking may occur near $155, a key level that previously marked the stock’s all-time high.
Momentum-wise—and note we’re looking at a longer-term time frame—the Relative Strength Index (RSI) suggests there’s still plenty of room to run before MU enters overbought territory. Volume-wise, however, you will want to see the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) levels increase once the breakout occurs, confirming that buying pressure is supporting the move.
Quick Take: The Setup at a Glance
In a nutshell: Watch for a breakout above $115 ahead of MU’s June 25 earnings by setting an alert using the Technical Alert Workbench. Note that entering a position ahead of earnings is always a risky prospect. If you are planning to take any action at all, make sure it’s in alignment with your own personal trading strategy and criteria.
A beat on earnings and strong guidance could fuel further upside, but watch out! If Wall Street decides to “sell the news,” due to any detail that dampens investor or analyst sentiment, a sharp decline could follow. If MU moves strongly to the upside, look for confirmation via rising CMF levels, which would signal real buying pressure.
If the breakout fails, key support lies near the bottom of the current trading range. On the upside, expect potential resistance and profit-taking between $127–$137, with a secondary ceiling near $155. The RSI still shows room for further gains before MU becomes overbought.
Final Thoughts: Will MU Deliver on the AI Hype?
MU may be lagging now, but, as the MarketCarpets data shows, momentum is quietly shifting, and the shift may accelerate as MU approaches both a potential breakout level and its earnings date. With a critical breakout level in sight and earnings just days away, consider preparing for a potential surge in volatility, which could move the stock in either direction. If MU does break to the upside, whether it can maintain its momentum post-breakout will depend on volume, CMF strength, and how convincingly MU rides the AI memory wave.
Disclaimer: This blog is for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. The ideas and strategies should never be used without first assessing your own personal and financial situation, or without consulting a financial professional.
